April 19, 2024
Bitcoin's Surge Hangs on US Jobs Report
Bitcoin News

US Employment Report Set to Shape Bitcoin’s Fate: Will It Surge to $50,000 or Face Suppression

The U.S. government is set to release its November employment report on Friday, and the findings have the potential to either boost or suppress the recent surge in bitcoin (BTC). The focus has predominantly been on the anticipated approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. as the driving force behind bitcoin’s climb from $27,000 to $44,000 since October’s outset.

However, the significant drop in interest rates has also played a part. These rate adjustments have spurred growth in conventional markets, leading to an 8.9% rise in the S&P 500 during November. Additionally, long-term bonds have nearly offset substantial year-to-date losses, while gold has reached an all-time high above $2,100 per ounce.

The decline in interest rates results from market expectations surrounding ongoing inflation deceleration and an economic slowdown. This anticipation suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve might not only halt its monetary tightening but also pivot towards cutting interest rates by the first quarter of 2024. Yet, there’s currently little concrete evidence to support such a rapid shift by the central bank, as the economy hasn’t exhibited substantial deceleration to warrant it. For the Federal Reserve to consider such a move, they’d likely need to observe a notable slowdown in employment growth, averaging 212,000 over the past four months, or even one or two months with negative job prints.

Economists forecast Friday’s report to reveal an increase of 185,000 jobs in November, maintaining the unemployment rate at 3.9% from October. A considerable shortfall in these estimates would likely reinforce expectations of lower interest rates, potentially fueling Bitcoin’s push towards $50,000. Conversely, if the report shows an addition of 200,000 jobs or more, it might prompt a reversal in expectations of rate cuts, impacting Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory.

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