The potential approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has triggered anticipation and skepticism. Renowned Bitcoin critic and advocate for gold, Peter Schiff, cautioned BTC enthusiasts about the potential consequences of such an approval.
Schiff, expressing his concerns on X (formerly Twitter), conveyed that spot Bitcoin ETFs might significantly impact BTC’s price. He highlighted how the assurance of a U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has bolstered the price of Bitcoin and fueled speculative demand over the years. His warning suggested that if the expected institutional demand fails to materialize, the approval of an ETF could lead to a collapse in BTC’s price.
Despite Schiff’s long-standing skepticism towards Bitcoin, which has repeatedly been proven wrong in each cycle, his tweet garnered responses from BTC proponents. They argued that, similar to how a gold ETF didn’t diminish the demand for physical gold, a spot Bitcoin ETF would only further stimulate the BTC market. However, the arrival of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. might face delays, as indicated by data-focused consultancy firm Matrixpoint. Their prediction indicated the likelihood of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting all spot BTC ETF applications before the final Jan. 10 deadline.
Matrixpoint’s forecast contrasts starkly with the expectations of many ETF analysts, most of whom had previously estimated a 90% chance of approval before the Jan. 10 deadline. The consulting firm highlighted that despite frequent engagements between ETF applicants and SEC staff, all applications fell short of meeting a crucial requirement necessary for SEC approval. Matrixpoint projected that the first-spot Bitcoin ETF might only secure approval after Q2 2024.
Their analysis also observed the dominance of Democrats among the current five-person voting commissioners leading the SEC. This led them to conclude that it’s less likely any of the commissioners, including SEC chief Gary Gensler, would vote in favor of a spot Bitcoin ETF. While some reports, citing unnamed sources, anticipated the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan. 2, this did not materialize. As the SEC’s Jan. 10 deadline approaches, optimism in the market is waning, evident from the weakness in crypto mining stocks and the sell-off in various crypto-related U.S. stocks.
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