March 27, 2024
Polymarket, 89% Odds SEC Approves BTC ETF by Jan. 15
Bitcoin News

Polymarket: 89% Odds SEC Approves BTC ETF by Jan. 15

Traders on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket are expressing confidence that one or more exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in bitcoin (BTC) will be approved in the U.S. within the next two weeks. As of the latest data, shares on the “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15” contract’s Yes side are trading at 89 cents, reflecting an 89% probability of the anticipated event occurring in the second half of the month. This probability has significantly risen from approximately 50% one month ago.

The market has been abuzz with speculation about the potential launch of a U.S.-based spot ETF since early October. During this period, bitcoin’s value has surged by over 55%, surpassing $45,000, driven primarily by optimism surrounding the expected ETFs, which are anticipated to attract billions of dollars in investor funds to the bitcoin market.

Polymarket, established in 2020, has emerged as a prominent prediction market, enabling investors to wager on various events. Traders have collectively placed bets totaling $437,394 on a prediction contract dedicated to ETF approval by Jan. 15. This contract settles to “Yes” if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves any ETF by the specified date.

According to Reuters, the SEC could inform the current 14 spot ETF applicants as early as Tuesday or Wednesday that they have received approval to launch ETFs in the coming weeks.

In response to potential market scenarios, some traders have acquired shares on the No side of the contract as a hedge against bullish exposure in the spot/futures market. These traders believe that if the SEC delays the expected ETF launch, it may lead to a significant drop in bitcoin’s price.

A trader explained their approach in the prediction contract’s comments, noting, “I’m purchasing ‘No’ to hedge my Long positions. If the ETF isn’t approved, I’ll still profit from a market downturn.”

Image by Freepik

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