April 19, 2024
Latest Cryptocurrency News

Crypto Traders Bet Big on Ether ETF Approval

Crypto gamblers are betting on the possibility that spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before May 31. Polygon-based gambling site Polymarket has traders betting more than $2.4 million on their forecasts.

Market Sentiment and Betting Trends

The betting market reflects a significant level of skepticism, with approximately 81% of gamblers betting against the approval of spot Ether ETFs before the deadline. Traders purchase shares representing their predictions, with share values fluctuating akin to market dynamics. Currently, the majority of gamblers lean towards a negative outcome, with Yes shares priced at $0.19 and No shares at $0.81.

Source: Polymarket

Stakes and Expectations

Leading traders have significant holdings in their chosen outcomes, with the top holder of No shares possessing approximately $127,000 worth of shares. Should the SEC greenlight a spot Ether ETF before the deadline, holders of Yes shares stand to profit, while the opposite holds true for No shares.

History of Crypto Betting

This isn’t the first time crypto traders have wagered on ETF approval outcomes. In January, Polymarket saw substantial betting activity surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs, eventually totaling over $12 million. Despite initial skepticism, the SEC approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, underscoring the unpredictability of regulatory decisions.

Grayscale’s Confidence Amidst Uncertainty

Despite widespread skepticism, Grayscale, an investment management business, remains optimistic about spot Ether ETF approval. Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm expressed confidence in the SEC’s good conclusion, adding that the regulator’s “lack of engagement” with applicants does not necessarily indicate rejection.

Photo by Bastian Riccard

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