In a surprising turn of events, Lyra Finance, the world’s largest decentralized crypto options venue, is indicating a one-in-five chance that Bitcoin (BTC) could surge beyond $70,000 by the end of April. According to options data from Lyra, their markets suggest a 20% probability of Bitcoin hitting fresh all-time highs by April 26.
Lyra’s founder and former Wall Street options trader, Nick Forster, revealed in an interview with CoinDesk, “Lyra’s markets are implying a roughly 20% chance of bitcoin hitting fresh all-time highs (trading higher than $70,000) by April 26.”
This prediction comes as Bitcoin recently experienced a 35% surge to $52,000 in just three weeks, marking its highest point since late 2021. Traders on Lyra had accurately positioned themselves for Bitcoin’s move above $50,000. The current view of a relatively low probability of a record move above $70,000 by the end of April might raise eyebrows among the crypto community.
The overall sentiment among crypto traders is positive, with expectations of further gains for Bitcoin. Factors contributing to this optimism include the U.S.’s highly stimulative fiscal policy, compensating for higher interest rates. Additionally, Bitcoin’s quadrennial mining reward halving is scheduled for April, and global recession probability is at its lowest since December 2021, supporting risk-taking across various financial markets.
Options, as derivatives, offer insight into the market direction anticipated by sophisticated traders. Lyra, comprising 50% of the global decentralized exchange (DEX) options volume, recently listed Bitcoin options with an expiry date of April 26. This enables traders to speculate on price movements surrounding the upcoming reward halving, expected to reduce the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50%.
Forster commented on the early trading activity, stating, “Early trading activity [in the April 26 expiry] has been concentrated in the upside, with call buyers lighting up the $64,000 and $70,000 strikes.”
As the crypto market continues to evolve, Lyra Finance’s prediction adds an interesting layer to the ongoing discussions around Bitcoin’s potential price movements, keeping investors and traders on the edge of their seats.
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